Tennis · resolved market
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261ab121c3bda121af4e38f31c11371b7474ceb63979b1d55c6727cfd7caebd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Renata Zarazuaof Renata Zarazua, Mariella Thamm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mariella Thamm | 8c | 2,328$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.67 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Mariella Thamm | 17c | 1,456$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mariella Thamm | 19c | 1,205$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.41 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…639ebacked Mariella Thamm | 10c | 681.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Mariella Thamm | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 433 | 53.6%232 W · 201 L | +32.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mariella Thamm | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…5906backed Mariella Thamm | 11c | 545.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mariella Thamm | 24c | 491.25$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Mariella Thamm | 8c | 400.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Mariella Thamm | 14c | 323.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…16b7backed Mariella Thamm | 7c | 322.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Mariella Thamm | 8c | 310.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Renata Zarazua | 80c | 219.98$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9251…40b4backed Mariella Thamm | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Renata Zarazua | 74c | 213.26$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bd…ae36backed Mariella Thamm | 16c | 184.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Mariella Thamm | 17c | 142.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Mariella Thamm | 20c | 138.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Mariella Thamm | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Mariella Thamm | 17c | 112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Renata Zarazua | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Mariella Thamm | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 11.9%23 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Renata Zarazua | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Mariella Thamm | 18c | 88.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Mariella Thamm | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Mariella Thamm | 19c | 61.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Mariella Thamm | 19c | 52.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Mariella Thamm | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Renata Zarazua | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb90…9c42backed Renata Zarazua | 77c | 30.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Renata Zarazua | 80c | 14.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thammthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Zarazua vs ThammZarazua won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.