TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Nemiga Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,029 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Lynx63c5,542$3,478 inWon+$2,063.6496645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nemiga Gaming45c2,072$930 inLost-$930.011,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Nemiga Gaming46c1,796$822 inLost-$822.351,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx58c1,235$717 inWon+$518.131,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Nemiga Gaming36c1,132$405 inLost-$404.5521144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Nemiga Gaming45c1,102$499 inLost-$498.8355147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Lynx67c560.75$377 inWon+$184.161,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Lynx54c544.45$294 inWon+$250.4547046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Nemiga Gaming39c500$195 inLost-$19546240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Nemiga Gaming34c463.89$160 inLost-$159.6629240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Nemiga Gaming45c421.92$190 inLost-$190.298148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Lynx58c395.77$230 inWon+$166.2261548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Nemiga Gaming28c341.71$96 inLost-$95.6814832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Nemiga Gaming13c245.9$32 inLost-$31.976936.2%25 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx54c223.59$121 inWon+$102.752,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Nemiga Gaming23c216.99$50 inLost-$49.9126550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93af…32abbacked Team Lynx68c207.73$140 inWon+$67.3810751.4%55 W · 52 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Team Lynx59c180.4$106 inWon+$74.7947951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Nemiga Gaming25c161.94$40 inLost-$40.225253.2%134 W · 118 L+20.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Team Lynx63c156.06$98 inWon+$58.3118952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Lynx64c135.36$87 inWon+$48.0927357.1%156 W · 117 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nemiga Gaming28c124.05$35 inLost-$34.8167043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Nemiga Gaming40c100$40 inLost-$4053634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Lynx54c70$38 inWon+$32.21,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming31c69.83$21 inLost-$21.312,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx65c60.76$39 inWon+$21.2773554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked Team Lynx55c60$33 inWon+$26.819951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Team Lynx76c60$46 inWon+$14.417054.7%93 W · 77 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Lynx59c55$32 inWon+$22.551,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe999…12bdbacked Nemiga Gaming47c50$24 inLost-$23.518156.4%102 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Lynx56c48.68$27 inWon+$21.4258250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Nemiga Gaming35c45.49$16 inLost-$16.051,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Nemiga Gaming48c40.14$19 inLost-$19.384963.3%31 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Nemiga Gaming44c34.95$16 inLost-$15.5327952.3%146 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a00…d958backed Team Lynx64c20.12$13 inWon+$7.241172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Team Lynx56c20$11 inWon+$8.879343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Lynx55c18.47$10 inWon+$8.311,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.