TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nemiga Gamingof Team Lynx, Nemiga Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,986
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,986 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nemiga Gaming29c8,991$2,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,367.221,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Lynx71c4,026$2,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,875.8796645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Lynx68c3,008$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.4247046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Nemiga Gaming65c2,862$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.4815457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Lynx68c2,723$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.2545750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Nemiga Gaming60c2,242$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.4692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Nemiga Gaming33c1,857$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.3423342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx77c1,542$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.061,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nemiga Gaming32c1,444$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.967043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac39…95c7backed Team Lynx50c1,407$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.41338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5986…73dcbacked Team Lynx66c998.49$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Nemiga Gaming34c837.81$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.6136654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Team Lynx69c797.71$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.421764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Nemiga Gaming31c660.18$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.5220827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Nemiga Gaming45c659.57$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36427143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Lynx68c602.73$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.8623653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Nemiga Gaming32c600.38$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.554341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Nemiga Gaming16c592.78$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.8214832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Lynx25c550$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.531,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Nemiga Gaming50c492.38$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.1926550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga Gaming36c455.1$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.471,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Lynx70c426.17$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.221,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Nemiga Gaming64c406$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6556548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Team Lynx43c396.81$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.999837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx39c353.14$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1362,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Team Lynx35c310.82$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2713850%69 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Team Lynx67c299.57$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.3736138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed Team Lynx64c298.76$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.2115064.7%97 W · 53 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Lynx66c290.23$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5535370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed Team Lynx41c288.28$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4223736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x785d…4e88backed Nemiga Gaming35c257.59$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.684148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Lynx65c250$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.51,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Lynx35c242.63$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7370052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Team Lynx65c233.03$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8655147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Team Lynx64c229.31$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4113145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e0f…3cd7backed Team Lynx66c216$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.561330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick57cpaid-52.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8681…ef99backed Nemiga Gaming30c207.69$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.516746.3%31 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Team Lynx66c206.79$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.158660.5%52 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11ea…594fbacked Nemiga Gaming19c204.77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.0515942.8%68 W · 91 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx68c199.49$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.921,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Lynx35c196.09$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.51,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Lynx45c194.02$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.141,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Lynx66c187.79$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7577256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Team Lynx57c172.17$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.392055%11 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Nemiga Gaming21c160.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2337223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x82ef…840bbacked Team Lynx66c148.42$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.969058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Team Lynx50c133.46$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0535032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Team Lynx48c126$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5369033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eea…2625backed Team Lynx55c124.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.761361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d28…87b5backed Team Lynx67c122.58$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.556860.3%41 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x636a…ec94backed Nemiga Gaming64c122.02$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.74977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Team Lynx20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.620448%98 W · 106 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Nemiga Gaming31c120$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.825348.6%123 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed Nemiga Gaming50c116.4$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.27546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming32c115.02$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.72,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Team Lynx53c115$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3316837.5%63 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3c…0518backed Nemiga Gaming18c113.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.97955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+69.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Team Lynx16c112.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4410728%30 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Team Lynx70c112.23$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5613152.7%69 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Nemiga Gaming19c110.83$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.851,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a7…d4c9backed Nemiga Gaming31c108.57$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+85.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Team Lynx70c106.25$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3810961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Nemiga Gaming56c104.23$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0226956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3188…870bbacked Team Lynx66c101.87$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.091662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4f…f538backed Team Lynx63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636960.9%42 W · 27 L+11.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+40.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Team Lynx63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6316250%81 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27e9…f09ebacked Team Lynx63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638253.7%44 W · 38 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Team Lynx66c97.96$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6566848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Team Lynx66c97.96$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6518952.9%100 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Nemiga Gaming60c97.6$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0420350.7%103 W · 100 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d8…9ccdbacked Nemiga Gaming27c97.53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Team Lynx66c96.96$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3230357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Team Lynx47c95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2536044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Team Lynx44c91.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4333854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6574…2d5dbacked Nemiga Gaming58c84.03$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c64…929abacked Nemiga Gaming52c78.13$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.234362.8%27 W · 16 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+20.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5495…fc8cbacked Team Lynx67c74.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.16650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked Team Lynx38c69.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3528846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked Team Lynx33c67.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3522740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Team Lynx40c66.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4825349.4%125 W · 128 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x073c…02d3backed Nemiga Gaming59c65.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Nemiga Gaming54c65.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9636759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed Team Lynx48c64.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8613262.9%83 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Team Lynx66c64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4265337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Team Lynx63c63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6950247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Team Lynx63c63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6922552.4%118 W · 107 L+26.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Nemiga Gaming31c61.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7624518.8%46 W · 199 L-31.2wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Team Lynx73c59.03$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0944474.8%332 W · 112 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Team Lynx65c58.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.018148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Team Lynx56c57.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5817054.7%93 W · 77 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Team Lynx37c56.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7441037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Lynx60c55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.151,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked Team Lynx63c51.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.479045.6%41 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Team Lynx39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0175…69edbacked Nemiga Gaming68c50.16$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.152495.8%23 W · 1 L+6.3wins+0.26per pick70cpaid+38.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Team Lynx34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710937.6%41 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Lynx66c48.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3358250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Nemiga Gaming39c48.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.514962.4%93 W · 56 L+21.8wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+24.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Nemiga Gaming36c48.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7740745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Nemiga Gaming35c48.05$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2320046%92 W · 108 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.