College Football · resolved market
Spread: TCU (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x264e178c63b280cc77f873fe34c92cd92e593797cb4a2f2570d0011a8f9b6b40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Stateof TCU, Iowa State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Iowa State | 47c | 2,518$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.12 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed TCU | 54c | 2,500$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Iowa State | 46c | 2,007$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.94 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Iowa State | 42c | 1,750$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed TCU | 58c | 1,750$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked TCU | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed TCU | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed TCU | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed TCU | 54c | 366.45$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.88 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked TCU | 53c | 238.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.62 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Iowa State | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed TCU | 53c | 201.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed TCU | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked TCU | 53c | 176.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed TCU | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed TCU | 57c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked TCU | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Iowa State | 45c | 48.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed TCU | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Iowa State | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed TCU | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…8056backed TCU | 57c | 17.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TCU (-6.5)this page
- Iowa State vs. TCUIowa State won
- O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: TCU (-7.5)Iowa State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.