College Football · resolved market
Spread: TCU (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ba1e3770f97ef1da30fefde1579b3a7ca10a3132a61c372f21633677ffb664a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Stateof TCU, Iowa State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed TCU | 50c | 61,774$30,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,867.31 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed TCU | 51c | 43,837$22,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,481 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Iowa State | 50c | 18,047$9,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,023.5 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Iowa State | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Iowa State | 48c | 12,222$5,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,355.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Iowa State | 49c | 11,484$5,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,857.28 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Iowa State | 50c | 11,192$5,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,596 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Iowa State | 49c | 9,399$4,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,793.55 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Iowa State | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Iowa State | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Iowa State | 49c | 5,110$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.98 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Iowa State | 50c | 3,532$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.28 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Iowa State | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Iowa State | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed TCU | 51c | 1,750$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.5 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed TCU | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Iowa State | 50c | 880$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Iowa State | 52c | 770$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Iowa State | 49c | 714$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.14 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Iowa State | 50c | 436$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Iowa State | 49c | 365.86$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.59 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Iowa State | 50c | 320$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Iowa State | 50c | 290.31$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Iowa State | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Iowa State | 50c | 170.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Iowa State | 49c | 159.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked TCU | 52c | 131.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Iowa State | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed TCU | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Iowa State | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Iowa State | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Iowa State | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed TCU | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed TCU | 51c | 70.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Iowa State | 50c | 52.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed TCU | 48c | 49.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed TCU | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Iowa State | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed Iowa State | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Iowa State | 47c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed TCU | 51c | 20.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…0a46backed TCU | 51c | 20.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Iowa State | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TCU (-7.5)this page
- Iowa State vs. TCUIowa State won
- O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: TCU (-6.5)Iowa State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.