South American Leagues · resolved market
Mazatlán FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d7ff174053fae8b15497b462d48c5fb4e4c47f2f79c4c9882a48dfdb09cc1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 577.09$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.13 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 35c | 575.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.37 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 32c | 406.89$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.7 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 65c | 379.37$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.59 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 64c | 233.3$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.31 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 32c | 146.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 129.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 31c | 111.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 36c | 98.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Under | 51c | 77.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 66c | 75.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 31c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 68c | 27.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…19bfbacked Under | 66c | 19.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5d…0d4fbacked Under | 65c | 18.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…1874backed Under | 66c | 15.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0a…dfe2backed Under | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mazatlán FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 3.5this page
- Mazatlán FC vs. CF Monterrey: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mazatlán FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mazatlán FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mazatlán FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.