NHL · resolved market
AHL: Providence Bruins vs. Springfield Thunderbirds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26fcb1cc59c3474be809c6087ca4a410cbfaa69ea9a274c5f1b3de1d01ab8c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Providence Bruinsof Providence Bruins, Springfield Thunderbirds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,146 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbcf8…5b23backed Providence Bruins | 9c | 9,833$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,948.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Providence Bruins | 67c | 676.62$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.7 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed Providence Bruins | 67c | 499.99$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 33c | 385.62$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 34c | 154$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 33c | 127.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bc…0136backed Providence Bruins | 9c | 113$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 33c | 98.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Providence Bruins | 67c | 94.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 33c | 90.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 33c | 90.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 34c | 72.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Providence Bruins | 66c | 67.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Providence Bruins | 55c | 51.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 33c | 38.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Springfield Thunderbirds | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Providence Bruins | 68c | 36.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Springfield Thunderbirds | 48c | 34.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…c919backed Providence Bruins | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae3…f80dbacked Providence Bruins | 68c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.