Tennis · resolved market
ATP Finals: Ruud vs. Rublev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27225dcd38ade63683e366303c76cdf0f0a50130b7162096ae57b8dcbde7c680
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Ruud, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Rublev | 54c | 7,206$3,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,921.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb34…19b0backed Ruud | 67c | 5,873$3,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Rublev | 1c | 2,701$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Rublev | 61c | 1,979$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Rublev | 38c | 1,711$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…f625backed Ruud | 66c | 1,227$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5607backed Ruud | 43c | 1,087$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Rublev | 62c | 1,070$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Ruud | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Rublev | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Ruud | 68c | 500$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 158 | 60.8%96 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Rublev | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Rublev | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Rublev | 25c | 475.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Ruud | 42c | 361.29$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…485bbacked Ruud | 77c | 300$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Ruud | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…24b4backed Ruud | 43c | 232.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Ruud | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Rublev | 58c | 197.46$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…79ebbacked Ruud | 62c | 161$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Rublev | 58c | 148.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Rublev | 60c | 140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Rublev | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Ruud | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c3…61ebbacked Ruud | 41c | 85.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +93%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed Ruud | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…07c4backed Ruud | 42c | 72.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Ruud | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Ruud | 40c | 52.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Ruud | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Ruud | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…fdbabacked Ruud | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c2dabacked Rublev | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecf…0d55backed Ruud | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.