Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x272eef38ae8a53e59890387189cf19b8c7ea5d7d868659a34e7948405694feaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.98 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 3,317$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 2,311$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.38 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 49c | 2,155$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.89 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Under | 49c | 2,104$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 50c | 1,648$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 1,264$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.91 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 48c | 234.04$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 51c | 209.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 50c | 184$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 71c | 141.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 11c | 140.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 47c | 126.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 37c | 118$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 52c | 94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Over | 41c | 59.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 49c | 49.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…605cbacked Under | 48c | 43.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4105…4ae3backed Over | 55c | 42.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…a876backed Over | 52c | 42.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 34.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 52c | 23.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 50c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 1.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.