Bundesliga · resolved market
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4080f94f014017adea5afd9a55a6bd4923775ec8efbf1e8a8c2a1c881db658f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 2,542$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 76c | 1,355$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.79 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 24c | 542.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.96 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 484.7$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.52 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 72c | 444.98$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.56 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Under | 62c | 355.94$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 37c | 352.76$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.47 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 53c | 273.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 46c | 266.46$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.57 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…b0e6backed Over | 77c | 260.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 76c | 204.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.74 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 27c | 148.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 57c | 142.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.11 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 23c | 127.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Over | 74c | 109$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 48c | 95.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Over | 74c | 59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Over | 75c | 56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 50.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 27c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…4cf3backed Under | 34c | 34.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Over | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…ce01backed Over | 71c | 19.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…1b85backed Over | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 77c | 14.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 1.5this page
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 3.5Under won
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.