Chess · resolved market
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Yi Wei vs Parham Maghsoodloo (Advances)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x275218b11c1dd83c30a4d509202d334a36a442eb08e428f2453fe8fd844c6fec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Weiof Wei, Maghsoodloo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0ba…e7ebbacked Maghsoodloo | 15c | 103.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Maghsoodloo | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb8…66fdbacked Wei | 58c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Wei | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Wei | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Maghsoodloo | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Maghsoodloo | 37c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Maghsoodloo | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Wei | 56c | 36.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Wei | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Wei | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Wei | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Wei | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Wei | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.