Other European Leagues · resolved market
Heracles Almelo vs. PSV: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x276233b18ab3c1571f8f13c13d0a4c0b0d8712a8d7c94cfd8b8e3b5ba65a69b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 26c | 2,602$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.16 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 75c | 2,300$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 26c | 1,000$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.74 | 119 | 23.5%28 W · 91 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 805.33$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.24 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 13c | 335.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 4c | 238.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 10c | 222.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 27c | 124$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 26c | 87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 27c | 60.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 230 | 61.3%141 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc0…0633backed Over | 76c | 35.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heracles Almelo vs. PSV: O/U 2.5this page
- Heracles Almelo vs. PSV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Heracles Almelo vs. PSV: O/U 1.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. PSV: O/U 3.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. PSV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Heracles Almelo (-1.5)PSV won
- Spread: PSV (-1.5)PSV won
- Spread: PSV (-2.5)Heracles Almelo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.