Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27687b90665e844568641425ae2fad54bc3ae536ee47c621e2316e9524da6d0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 7,354$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 12c | 500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 470.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 65c | 306.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 283.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 221.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 193.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 74c | 161.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 17c | 150.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 101.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed No | 65c | 100.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 35c | 100.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 18c | 94.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 86.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 35c | 85.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 26c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 27c | 49.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 35c | 40.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 34.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 28.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 49c | 26.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 60c | 23.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc231…d551backed No | 78c | 22.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…d485backed No | 67c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 69c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 78c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 76c | 13.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.