Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ddfe8822e971bec4b470b2c35187f283159d5e15d9a394808e824d367f3f7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x328e…fd9ebacked No | 1c | 17,561$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 4c | 323.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 65c | 306.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.51 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 54c | 306.89$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 66c | 289.02$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 14c | 155.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 70c | 149.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 148.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 24c | 143.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 23c | 128.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 55c | 127.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 102.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 32c | 94.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 32c | 82.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 25c | 81.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 77c | 81.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 35c | 64.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 64.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 79c | 62.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 58c | 50.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 44c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 48.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 51c | 44.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 50c | 40.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 31c | 39.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 29c | 34.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 72c | 34.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 33.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…70a3backed Yes | 64c | 26.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…c0e3backed Yes | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 51c | 26.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 77c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 67c | 23.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 78c | 22.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked Yes | 78c | 22.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 73c | 21.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 66c | 21.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 80c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed Yes | 77c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.