Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2769fee09d52c97540157eb3b3ac40b98bf782c4abe52aeccfbdf5ad8ed4cf23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.31 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 1,356$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 8c | 758$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 681.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 317.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 316$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 16c | 243.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 219.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 182.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 7c | 178.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 167.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 117.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 12c | 106.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 17c | 81.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…90f0backed Yes | 15c | 67.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 17c | 61.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 61.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 79c | 35.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…201dbacked No | 79c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.