Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ccf620a3af4ecccbe4d5a1a9e7c6ead7504795d1dcdabb3ae7004d3b315f91d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 28c | 533.28$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 21c | 473.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.93 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 11c | 363.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.2 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 37c | 285.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 241.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 233.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 17c | 216$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 43c | 210.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 7c | 209.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 205$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.86 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 198$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 164.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 151.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 139.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 40c | 133$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 130.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 28c | 108.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 60c | 103.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 58c | 99.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 97.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 93.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…f54abacked Yes | 57c | 87.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 65c | 85.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 83.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed No | 26c | 83.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 58c | 82.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…8145backed Yes | 33c | 78.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 23c | 74.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 32c | 66.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 63.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 63.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 37c | 61.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 60.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 58.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 56c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 59c | 54.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 54.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 28c | 54.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 51c | 54.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 52.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 63c | 50.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…5d9bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 55c | 49.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 48.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 59c | 48.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 53c | 47.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 46.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 59c | 43.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 76c | 42.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 33c | 42.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 41.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 61c | 41.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 61c | 41.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 40.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 39.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…745cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 54c | 36.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 35.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 32.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 25.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 24.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 50c | 24.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 23.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 22.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 74c | 21.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a9…252dbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e7…c338backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.