Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79f3d222764a4c98eceb1ad9cfe070853e27275e5c0922d9521ce49b4ba1c1d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 0c | 21,289$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 34c | 2,560$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.02 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 476.21$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…df71backed Yes | 32c | 476.09$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 454.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 76c | 342.08$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 29c | 297.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…8145backed Yes | 41c | 245.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 244.3$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 42c | 209.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 28c | 207.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 198.39$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2049…c390backed Yes | 36c | 194.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 187.54$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 184.18$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 60c | 182.14$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 178.1$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 41c | 166.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 18c | 164.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes | 40c | 163.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 147.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 143.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 140.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 68c | 134.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 77c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 118.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 59c | 116.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 115.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 109.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 106.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 104$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 45c | 101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 100.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 11c | 100.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 98.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 97.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 33c | 86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 71c | 84.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 72c | 83.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b15…e884backed Yes | 37c | 78.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 26c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 34c | 74.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 61c | 72.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed No | 67c | 72.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 34c | 67.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 64.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…03a0backed Yes | 40c | 59.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 63c | 54.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 36c | 53.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 53.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…69e6backed Yes | 41c | 51.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 43c | 47.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 43.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 61c | 42.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 34c | 41.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 41.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 35c | 40.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 34c | 40.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 44c | 38.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…35f2backed No | 62c | 35.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 41c | 32.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 32.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 58c | 29.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 27.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 60c | 26.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 25.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 25.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.