NHL · resolved market
Dallas Stars win the 2024 Stanley Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27913501b96bd6949371321ab302235518eba44c475d4aca2c4b39ad3c689d50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 28c | 4,696$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 45c | 4,444$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7d…0d2bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 72c | 590.9$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…b51dbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 77c | 423.93$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…edb7backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 17c | 381.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d3…d833backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dallas Stars win the 2024 Stanley Cup?this page
- Boston Bruins win the 2024 Stanley Cup?No won
- Carolina Hurricanes win the 2024 Stanley Cup?No won
- Colorado Avalanche win the 2024 Stanley Cup?No won
- Edmonton Oilers win the 2024 Stanley Cup?No won
- Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup?Yes won
- New York Rangers win the 2024 Stanley Cup?No won
- Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2024 Stanley Cup?No won
- Vancouver Canucks win the 2024 Stanley Cup?No won
- Vegas Golden Knights win the 2024 Stanley Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.