Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27c8d494cb71fbf1bf09a66b7bc50ade52f1390cfcd4985ff0cb464121a0fc9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 23c | 3,340$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.22 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 553.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 17c | 482.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 22c | 425.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…17d4backed Yes | 15c | 324.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 4c | 314.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 221.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 203.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 18c | 198.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 20c | 192.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 28c | 189.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 180.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 179.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 154.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 8c | 133.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 129.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 76c | 104.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 75c | 99.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 21c | 85.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 19c | 77.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 67.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade9…1990backed Yes | 18c | 61.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 18c | 60.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 25c | 55.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 21c | 49.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 77c | 48.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4808…5309backed No | 74c | 45.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +251.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 76c | 44.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 78c | 37.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 29.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 80c | 29.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 74c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed No | 77c | 21.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 78c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 77c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…da9bbacked No | 79c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 73c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.