Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x558a9dbd097e526ae8732c08317dbf5d3f7869319b585dd8403893de1f7fc138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes | 1c | 16,162$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 3c | 1,487$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 38c | 832.18$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 33c | 817.54$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.19 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 15c | 632.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…6f63backed Yes | 4c | 588.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 535.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 33c | 506.15$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.11 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 468.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 457$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 77c | 442.11$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf07a…060bbacked Yes | 69c | 437.85$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 333.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 73c | 317.42$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 309.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 67c | 290.1$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 20c | 268.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 267.49$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 77c | 254.02$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.38 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 65c | 244.94$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 9c | 237.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 232.86$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 32c | 219.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 186.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 8c | 185.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 24c | 148.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 20c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 61c | 130$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 77c | 126.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 78c | 125.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 39c | 124.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…2007backed Yes | 19c | 119.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 117.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 46c | 113.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 22c | 107.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 107.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 52c | 100.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 97.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 21c | 96.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 39c | 93.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 90.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 90.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 26c | 85.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…f405backed Yes | 33c | 83.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 23c | 81.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 21c | 76.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 14c | 74.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…64cebacked Yes | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 21c | 72.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 17c | 70.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 30c | 69.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 68.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…7a97backed Yes | 29c | 64.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +115%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 76c | 64.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 77c | 63.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 58.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 53.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 50.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 71c | 49.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…767ebacked No | 76c | 49.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 26c | 48.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 28c | 48.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 47.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 34c | 46.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…760bbacked Yes | 36c | 44.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 41.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 41.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 40.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…3b08backed Yes | 53c | 39.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e1…1b93backed Yes | 26c | 39.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 30c | 39.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 44c | 38.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 37.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 33.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d1f3backed Yes | 41c | 30.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 35c | 30.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 30.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…3059backed Yes | 35c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…17d4backed Yes | 37c | 29.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 68c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 68c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 75c | 26.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 26.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 26.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 46c | 25.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 23.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 73c | 22.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 70c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 61c | 20.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.