TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,131 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes1c16,162$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes3c1,487$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8342315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked Yes38c832.18$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.43046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes33c817.54$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.1956131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes15c632.35$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6953437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ebc…6f63backed Yes4c588.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.96119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-88.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c535.71$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.345,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes33c506.15$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1149941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c468.49$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes4c457$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.746219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked No77c442.11$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9930919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf07a…060bbacked Yes69c437.85$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.651050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No60c333.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.332,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No73c317.42$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.619148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes8c309.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.161,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No67c290.1$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7332041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes20c268.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.626240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c267.49$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes77c254.02$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.387070%49 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No65c244.94$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes9c237.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.311,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No67c232.86$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.751,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes32c219.64$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.898643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c186.33$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.142,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes8c185.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1131442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes24c148.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.640025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes20c135$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.626327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No61c130$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.14963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed No77c126.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.183675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No78c125.82$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.055164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes39c124.62$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4845238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd50c…2007backed Yes19c119.82$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.74850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c117.3$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.463,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes46c113.03$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4949854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes22c107.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3614637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes38c107.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4365043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed No52c100.19$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8416944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c97.79$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.642,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes21c96.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.181,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes39c93.58$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.723549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No42c90.62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.97,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No58c90.23$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5599961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes26c85.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x743e…f405backed Yes33c83.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes23c81.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.612343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes21c76.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0964021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes14c74.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8423022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90a…64cebacked Yes50c73$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.591546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No21c72.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.928718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes17c70.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9219734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6508…c045backed Yes30c69.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.78825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No64c68.43$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.842,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes30c66.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.794337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a8…7a97backed Yes29c64.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.581741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+115%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50e9…af97backed Yes76c64.07$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8110658.5%62 W · 44 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1de…aadfbacked No77c63.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.246376.2%48 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No67c58.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.482,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes34c53.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No71c50.03$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.371,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.916234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked No71c49.84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.452568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x941f…767ebacked No76c49.66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.92850%4 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes26c48.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6218668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes28c48.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5772837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No64c47.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.917,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8862770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes34c46.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6425037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf8…760bbacked Yes36c44.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No70c42.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No69c41.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c41.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes29c40.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6446240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540a…3b08backed Yes53c39.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e1…1b93backed Yes26c39.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.381241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes30c39.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7293837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes44c38.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0620631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No69c37.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8981756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c33.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.718,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…d1f3backed Yes41c30.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.662259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes35c30.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7418650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No74c30.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x00e0…3059backed Yes35c30.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+107.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.686173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33b…17d4backed Yes37c29.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.881118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No68c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0116575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No68c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0126566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No75c26.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6616159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No69c26.56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.241,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No76c26.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.259,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked No46c25.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0645148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No68c23.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No73c22.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1227376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.944,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No70c21.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4312564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No61c20.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0317355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.