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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes32c1,337$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.6431119.6%61 W · 250 L-16.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed No61c1,037$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.284037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf07a…060bbacked Yes70c923.2$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.961050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes70c768.18$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No30c572.22$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.0812,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes59c533.06$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.855,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked Yes51c499.99$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.993046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes59c458.15$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.9540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c416.43$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.048,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes49c328.26$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.951,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes42c327.83$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.7356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes75c319.73$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No13c287.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.446219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes68c283.16$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4849941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes71c272.17$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9731442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c254.62$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.3417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c227$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.392,65547.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No44c220.43$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.966321.7%144 W · 519 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes54c219.95$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.678643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes56c211.59$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.9618668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes41c197.15$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.097,56437.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L+95.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30bd…cecabacked Yes53c190$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.33836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97df…889abacked Yes73c168.76$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.452556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No31c161.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes55c142.3$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.521,82942.6%780 W · 1,049 L+51.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No62c141.3$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5681756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes38c124.95$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0566734.3%229 W · 438 L+38.1wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No27c116.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.317,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c112.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.829,98744.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L+258.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6469…b890backed Yes69c112.33$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes41c106.47$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff9…a21abacked No58c101.52$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.28138.3%31 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No76c99.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4886173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes56c97.95$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4811362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes63c97.13$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6123738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes51c95.05$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9619160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes68c93.02$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9752935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes42c86.52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0410780.4%86 W · 21 L+21.9wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.4%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No30c86.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8948743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…2007backed Yes66c86.12$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.62850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes35c85.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6414637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes69c79.37$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3218164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5547…fb20backed Yes47c78.09$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes25c76.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5228718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb36a…9f20backed No24c76.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9fa…a7dcbacked Yes42c75.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.55683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+44.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No71c74.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4972837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes54c71.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5896633.3%322 W · 644 L+27.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c70.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3612,87920.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L-2,688.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No53c65.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.371,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes47c60.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.072128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x172e…997fbacked Yes48c59.4$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.962744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes76c57.41$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8346547.3%220 W · 245 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes44c56.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.881,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.689,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x693c…d079backed Yes58c51.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.852839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85e…79febacked Yes57c51.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.953253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,02831.3%949 W · 2,079 L+40.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.716234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No32c49.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9315435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes55c49.76$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4862539.7%248 W · 377 L+28.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes57c47.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.531,48924.6%366 W · 1,123 L-34.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No60c47.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5816548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x743e…f405backed No61c47.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.821361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a8…7a97backed Yes40c47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+115%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58de…02c3backed Yes42c44.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.071040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No49c44.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes68c42.95$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.926240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No32c41.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.471,56616.3%255 W · 1,311 L+22.8wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes46c40.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.062343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No71c40.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7570770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No50c39.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4916159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes75c39.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.944158.5%24 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No40c38.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5511652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes50c38.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2315047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes50c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes50c37.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1540242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc80…f224backed Yes27c37.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.041947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb934…57ebbacked Yes58c36.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.597541.3%31 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes36c36.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5593837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2779…5e59backed Yes54c35.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.393860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes44c34.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3747940.5%194 W · 285 L+2.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x81b2…cf28backed No73c33.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick75cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes59c33.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6816944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe7e6…d3ddbacked Yes47c33.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes59c32.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.331020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-65.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c66…f4d3backed No79c30.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4824770%173 W · 74 L+1.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.83246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00e0…3059backed Yes35c29.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.49475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+107.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd849…6d86backed No55c29.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.262250%11 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+85.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes49c29.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1823362.2%145 W · 88 L+33.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3eb9…901ebacked No70c29.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.375766.7%38 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes48c28.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.872544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes69c28.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8411129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes42c28.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.392544%11 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes69c28.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7111637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes36c27.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.927037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes72c26.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5214544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.