Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27d4308943980af67f0bd2b8f97b49f04ab52040beb180e3054a5d2853d49197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed No | 1c | 1,775$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…14d0backed No | 15c | 1,100$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 932.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 9c | 262.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 41c | 241.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 45c | 155.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7013…b95bbacked Yes | 55c | 130.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 117.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 117$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 53c | 108$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 60c | 105.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 62c | 97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 56c | 83.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 69.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 55c | 63.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 65c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 44c | 56.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 49c | 51.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 58c | 47.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 72c | 41.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 41.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 61c | 41.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 69c | 39.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c6…8c6dbacked No | 58c | 36.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 39c | 33.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 32.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 53c | 23.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ac…0f5abacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.