Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7bc90d778f3669883f79f06689f5c35e2092956160e17d7aaa60835dcf4f469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28e7…98b8backed Yes | 6c | 391.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef2…6150backed Yes | 6c | 255.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 75c | 169.6$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 135.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 29c | 135$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 120.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 31c | 113.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 74c | 112.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked Yes | 32c | 84.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 70c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 67.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 38c | 63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 77c | 44.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 29c | 40.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 76c | 33.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 26.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 73c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 78c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…675cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.