Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd42b818ba419dfa13c078a06bf76a2ff928335596c2b3c99b07981687b7a774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 20c | 399.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 249.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 16c | 199.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 19c | 197.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 14c | 195.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 15c | 168.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 17c | 165.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 146.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 139.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 12c | 121.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 121.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 114.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 18c | 102.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…1432backed Yes | 15c | 99.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 10c | 98.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 80.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 16c | 68.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7d9abacked Yes | 17c | 66.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 22c | 63.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 19c | 55.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 23c | 42.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 37.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…6e6abacked No | 79c | 26.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 79c | 22.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 13.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.