Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27d6c4f0dd59839e65b90310d77d148338ea73f56d3d4caa291551ae3a5196d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed Yes | 73c | 1,011$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 558.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 35c | 502.12$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.42 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked Yes | 4c | 462.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.25 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 15c | 387.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 79c | 345.78$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 78c | 285.74$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.6 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 257.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 58c | 243.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.83 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 232.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 14c | 206.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 192.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 65c | 173.59$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 30c | 169.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.6 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 9c | 166.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.6 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 46c | 151.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 19c | 131.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 124.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 114.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 43c | 102.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 88.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 23c | 77.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 67.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 64c | 62.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 30c | 50.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 65c | 48.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 30c | 44.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 54c | 44.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 56c | 44.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0e…4ccfbacked No | 70c | 40.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 78c | 39.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…44ebbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 64c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 72c | 27.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 62c | 23.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 64c | 22.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeefe…6c44backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.