Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ddd2f61d551524d815563de5b2441c4a04ef2bf64c86f83465668ba2ad26187
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed Yes | 7c | 1,351$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 5c | 521.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 9c | 270.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 73c | 255.97$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.82 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 9c | 219.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 77c | 162.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 159.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 158.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 152.44$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 135.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 134.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 114$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 99.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 77.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 72.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdb…9059backed Yes | 56c | 69.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 66.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 63.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 62.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 56.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 74c | 50.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 52c | 48.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 77c | 46.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 39c | 38.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967f…6990backed Yes | 45c | 33.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 48c | 33.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 30.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 24.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 20.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…832cbacked No | 69c | 18.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 73c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 76c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.