CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280da0697035359cb56ffab5b5b12dc2de2245378c08a194547805c48a9aae25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof FURIA, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,809 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15a1…0538backed FURIA | 39c | 441$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Heroic | 62c | 399.98$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.99 | 463 | 45.6%211 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heroic | 61c | 335$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.71 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed FURIA | 39c | 293.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…1004backed Heroic | 62c | 280$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0315…7485backed FURIA | 39c | 279$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee87…5aa9backed Heroic | 61c | 274$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5026…a317backed FURIA | 39c | 271$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…76afbacked FURIA | 39c | 256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7436…3062backed Heroic | 61c | 254$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…e271backed Heroic | 56c | 248$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 379 | 46.4%176 W · 203 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…09afbacked FURIA | 44c | 248$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…ea36backed Heroic | 62c | 246$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2300…d3ecbacked Heroic | 61c | 234$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…ce73backed Heroic | 61c | 229$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…139abacked Heroic | 61c | 209$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…d044backed Heroic | 61c | 207$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…17bdbacked Heroic | 61c | 204$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…e820backed Heroic | 61c | 193$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…c3b5backed FURIA | 39c | 167$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddf…e0a1backed FURIA | 39c | 163$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…245dbacked Heroic | 61c | 163$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c9…3e73backed Heroic | 61c | 161$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d69…4219backed FURIA | 39c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked FURIA | 38c | 158.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 253 | 44.3%112 W · 141 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f8…9e09backed Heroic | 61c | 151$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…7a78backed FURIA | 38c | 151$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb250…224fbacked FURIA | 39c | 147$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed FURIA | 38c | 146.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…d2fabacked Heroic | 61c | 143$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…8b04backed FURIA | 39c | 142$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c01…7dfbbacked FURIA | 38c | 137$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…7e2bbacked FURIA | 39c | 133$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0564…bb8abacked FURIA | 39c | 132$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed FURIA | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed FURIA | 33c | 131.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…9b60backed FURIA | 39c | 131$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Heroic | 44c | 129.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d1…55dbbacked FURIA | 38c | 129$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed FURIA | 59c | 126.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 317 | 57.7%183 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3de…d87fbacked FURIA | 38c | 109$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bf…ec1abacked FURIA | 58c | 96.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Heroic | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed FURIA | 51c | 68.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Heroic | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 400 | 50.8%203 W · 197 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 38c | 55.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Heroic | 42c | 42.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…dcf8backed FURIA | 40c | 37.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Heroic | 60c | 37.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Heroic | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa391…dd32backed FURIA | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2FURIA won
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerFURIA won
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.