Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2813f0bb7cfe3a0be8266ea295787dbbb94e5f3fbb48f9ad9f6fa74b4b71986b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,667 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 36c | 450.09$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.27 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 375.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 320.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 293.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 45c | 253.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 248.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 238$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 41c | 209.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 173.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 62c | 166.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 148.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 23c | 144.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 33c | 139.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 130.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 78c | 127.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 108.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 105.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 102.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 62c | 73.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 46c | 72.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Yes | 30c | 71.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 71.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 65.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 70c | 56.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 61c | 55.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 78c | 54.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 54.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 31c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 20c | 52.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed Yes | 32c | 48.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…932dbacked Yes | 31c | 47.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 46.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…10babacked No | 58c | 44.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked No | 73c | 41.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 41.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 30c | 39.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 72c | 39.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 33c | 39.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed No | 79c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 57c | 34.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 34.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 66c | 32.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37f…95d4backed No | 73c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…4020backed No | 66c | 26.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe5…4d16backed No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 25.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 62c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 59c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 71c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 77c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 77c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.