Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad2996346f745c033107c775b935d7ff848bf2125416d39139930ee5297061c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,345 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,960$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 470.82$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.41 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 50c | 449.57$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.79 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 430.03$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.07 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 363.06$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 238$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 40c | 205.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 46c | 202.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 9c | 196.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…cf90backed No | 74c | 173.82$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 37c | 160.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 157.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 154.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 147.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 43c | 143.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 989 | 38%376 W · 613 L | +80.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 51c | 137.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 53c | 136.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 131.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 40c | 127.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 624 | 22.4%140 W · 484 L | -29.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 114.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 75c | 110$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 102.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 1,457 | 34.8%507 W · 950 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 60c | 100.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 100.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 44c | 86.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 214 | 33.6%72 W · 142 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…4237backed No | 46c | 66.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 53c | 52.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 61c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 59c | 44.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed Yes | 61c | 44.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 27c | 44.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 58c | 43.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 77c | 41.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 244 | 46.3%113 W · 131 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 62c | 39.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 70c | 38.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 38.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3064…641abacked Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked Yes | 29c | 37.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 35.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d83…bdfcbacked No | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 47c | 33.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 47c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 57c | 31.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 52c | 30.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…c7d5backed Yes | 50c | 30.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 192 | 47.9%92 W · 100 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 50c | 29.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 42c | 27.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 333 | 39.6%132 W · 201 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 53c | 26.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 49c | 26.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 43c | 26.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 46c | 26.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 54c | 26.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 41c | 25.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 61c | 25.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 58c | 25.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 54c | 24.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 43c | 24.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 64c | 23.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 59c | 21.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 60c | 21.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 336 | 35.1%118 W · 218 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 68c | 20.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 19.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 69c | 16.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 69c | 14.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.