Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x281513fa18cb8d4245bf03528cffa7cbd3a0352484ea9bc590303fb3f46ebec3

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Nottingham Forestof Liverpool, Nottingham Forest
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,996 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x88a2…d974backed Liverpool	44c	6,831$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	96	36.5%35 W · 61 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Nottingham Forest	56c	5,350$2,996 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,354	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x719f…db30backed Nottingham Forest	57c	5,000$2,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,150	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23bf…429abacked Liverpool	43c	5,000$2,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,150	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Nottingham Forest	58c	4,320$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,819.9	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x605a…4576backed Nottingham Forest	56c	3,300$1,848 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,452	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1828…cca5backed Liverpool	44c	3,295$1,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,449.95	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nottingham Forest	57c	3,259$1,854 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,404.94	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Liverpool	43c	2,637$1,145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,145	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nottingham Forest	58c	1,737$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$736.88	157	57.3%90 W · 67 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b4…1014backed Liverpool	44c	1,149$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-24%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…de93backed Liverpool	45c	792.38$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.57	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Nottingham Forest	57c	778.4$444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.71	308	51.3%158 W · 150 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46c8…6239backed Nottingham Forest	57c	707.89$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$304.39	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac71…d8cabacked Liverpool	44c	688.8$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Liverpool	42c	656.38$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.68	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Liverpool	42c	604.54$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.47	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb86e…7395backed Liverpool	43c	465.12$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Liverpool	45c	450$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.5	300	50.7%152 W · 148 L	-16.5wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Nottingham Forest	57c	300$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129	87	40.2%35 W · 52 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc711…d3c6backed Liverpool	43c	300$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed Liverpool	42c	253.08$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.29	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Liverpool	43c	244.59$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4948…08bdbacked Liverpool	42c	240.48$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Liverpool	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	153	47.7%73 W · 80 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1346…8502backed Liverpool	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Liverpool	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	43.7%45 W · 58 L	-8.8wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Nottingham Forest	48c	205.32$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.51	201	50.2%101 W · 100 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6bb…b384backed Liverpool	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d0…87f3backed Nottingham Forest	59c	169.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.49	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Liverpool	41c	166.36$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.21	138	52.2%72 W · 66 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4702…457fbacked Liverpool	42c	150$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c40…0c8fbacked Liverpool	43c	147.78$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-5.8wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Nottingham Forest	57c	135.32$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.34	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Liverpool	42c	130.95$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5532…850bbacked Liverpool	43c	116.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1166…a8e1backed Liverpool	45c	111.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	97	36.1%35 W · 62 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Nottingham Forest	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Nottingham Forest	56c	99.99$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.99	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Liverpool	42c	95$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	292	59.2%173 W · 119 L	+14.1wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcda0…6d11backed Liverpool	44c	82.09$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c2…15eebacked Liverpool	44c	70.72$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Liverpool	43c	69.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.93	282	46.1%130 W · 152 L	-12.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Liverpool	42c	61.62$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.13	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Liverpool	42c	59.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	327	37.6%123 W · 204 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64fb…8e0bbacked Liverpool	43c	58.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e7e…425ebacked Liverpool	43c	58.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad85…ed5bbacked Liverpool	45c	55.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84b2…f1dabacked Nottingham Forest	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	101	39.6%40 W · 61 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e30…01b0backed Nottingham Forest	62c	48.39$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.39	93	35.5%33 W · 60 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Liverpool	42c	46.29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-7.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-18%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Liverpool	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	159	49.7%79 W · 80 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa43…3215backed Liverpool	51c	39.42$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+44%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf64b…7b63backed Liverpool	43c	34.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nottingham Forest	58c	30.52$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.82	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd6d…c733backed Liverpool	45c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	63	30.2%19 W · 44 L	-9.5wins	-0.15per pick	45cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nottingham Forest	51c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a50…6c6bbacked Liverpool	42c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-11.4wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-19%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Liverpool	42c	24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	834	59.4%495 W · 339 L	+25.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)this page
Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 3.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event