Premier League · resolved market
Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeb3d6b2a0016c49c0a23c747c21bd035200c48be71a07644a1c06a52d8cb0eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 38c | 3,666$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.32 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 62c | 3,333$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.54 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 44c | 550$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.87 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 348.42$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 60c | 248$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 66c | 229.02$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 211.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c1…3ac2backed Under | 60c | 168.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 51c | 109.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…b1b1backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Under | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 61c | 98.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 87.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 61c | 74.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 44c | 73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Under | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 38c | 39.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…f7dcbacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 61c | 31.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…95d4backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…57d4backed Over | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a50…6c6bbacked Over | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Over | 46c | 26.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Over | 46c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Over | 47c | 25.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…7b63backed Under | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest: O/U 3.5this page
- Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Liverpool (-1.5)Nottingham Forest won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.