MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28290ff8ce51b0448ec5ae0237f14ac90700ab91c415fe7ed3d73a81e83c2d2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 6,026$3,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,494.79 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 2,302$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.87 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 43c | 1,854$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.07 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 1,556$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.37 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 521.57$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.08 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 483.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.93 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 439.25$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 399.98$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.32 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 329.77$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.01 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 290.28$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.81 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 290$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.2 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 252.3$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 185.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…c9b5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 165.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 163$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 123.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…cf83backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 119.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 99.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 85.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 63.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 61.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…1299backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 49.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 47.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d3…98e5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 38.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 33.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 33.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…c386backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 30.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 27.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 26.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…6399backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 58c | 20.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 19.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 18.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.