MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1efc3e7dff67002a8e3f07846eed80c7d7f819bfe2e349e8687cca4610b71a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 44c | 10,619$4,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,708.52 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9e…de51backed Over | 56c | 8,762$4,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,856.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…312ebacked Over | 54c | 2,701$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.55 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 45c | 2,358$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.27 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 55c | 1,996$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.07 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 1,955$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.06 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 56c | 1,460$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.58 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Over | 55c | 1,238$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 54c | 1,183$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.24 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 45c | 1,103$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.46 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 55c | 1,097$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.46 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 800$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 798.47$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.31 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 45c | 724.87$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.19 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 55c | 440.48$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 55c | 389.2$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.14 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 269.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 55c | 265.36$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 46c | 219.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Under | 24c | 171.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 145.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 120.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 35c | 73.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…7ca1backed Over | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 46c | 51.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 46c | 37.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…93d3backed Over | 54c | 37.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 45c | 31.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…10f6backed Under | 46c | 29.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 55c | 26.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 72c | 24.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Over | 53c | 23.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 56c | 19.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 78c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.