MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96322a8447ce7bd0eaabac4b3c8d2b9c973b72c090f2ac5509b976a36780ecd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 57c | 9,710$5,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,512.48 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 6,517$2,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,715.94 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 44c | 1,595$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.41 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 41c | 1,222$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.22 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 59c | 780.45$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.8 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 476.53$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 402.03$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 69c | 241.37$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 43c | 162.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 70c | 135.42$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 44c | 116.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 90.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 44c | 87.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 56c | 79.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Under | 45c | 71.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…6a8ebacked Over | 44c | 44.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…7ca1backed Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…6b2cbacked Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 39c | 43.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 44c | 40.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 44c | 31.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 38c | 27.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Over | 44c | 24.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…d7a0backed Under | 58c | 19.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.