Premier League · resolved market
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2837cdd42e4a3d4445cb80e124f6a15a43cf4822a53877afd96d54ef0c1d76db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 21c | 5,209$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.93 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked No | 75c | 667.2$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 28c | 606.87$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 25c | 573.32$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 76c | 522.94$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.94 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked No | 75c | 415.94$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 323$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 78c | 206.66$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked No | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 24c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed No | 76c | 145$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 26c | 137.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 327 | 36.4%119 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…b28abacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b93…9915backed Yes | 17c | 123.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 108.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…1cbebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…7da0backed No | 75c | 79.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a09…4a9ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b97…bd26backed Yes | 28c | 72.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 72c | 71.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…9908backed Yes | 29c | 63.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed No | 74c | 55.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3905…eee1backed No | 75c | 46.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 75c | 42.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 77c | 41.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…aaecbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…c88cbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed No | 75c | 27.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…2ac3backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…5683backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…3fe8backed No | 75c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…b112backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…a34ebacked No | 75c | 18.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-01-04?this page
- Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04?No won
- Will Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.