Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x284641e9ae8ec743cbd7bf47f89cf95872838ffada96b29e48610d68758147a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 22c | 710.72$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.83 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 7c | 516.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 473.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 8c | 314.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.44 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 294.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 235.75$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 27c | 235.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 59c | 214.29$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.71 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbd…e8e7backed No | 78c | 200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.95 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 198.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.33 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 26c | 192.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 33c | 182.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.74 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 172.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 26c | 158.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.42 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked No | 79c | 142.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 74c | 132.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 29c | 115.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 105.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d24…9f38backed Yes | 15c | 100.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed Yes | 79c | 95.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 42c | 89.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 85.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 69.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…013fbacked Yes | 18c | 62.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 75c | 55.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 34c | 52.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 31c | 51.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 27c | 51.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 69c | 50.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 39.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 36c | 39.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…341cbacked Yes | 78c | 34.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…fd91backed No | 80c | 30.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96dd…ff8ebacked No | 70c | 27.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dea…fad6backed Yes | 75c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 79c | 17.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 73c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.