UFC · resolved market
Anderson vs. Yagshimuradov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x284eaff3a160fd20ef88c4d70b8fa71a80d8a5fe9fd9f3f5d6e1f8ac4cea09d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Andersonof Anderson, Yagshimuradov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yagshimuradov | 31c | 1,940$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.07 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yagshimuradov | 35c | 1,366$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.79 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Anderson | 70c | 1,100$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Anderson | 65c | 1,020$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.6 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Anderson | 68c | 1,011$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.39 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Yagshimuradov | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Anderson | 64c | 199.19$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Anderson | 64c | 180$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yagshimuradov | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Yagshimuradov | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Yagshimuradov | 37c | 89.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df4…9e8fbacked Yagshimuradov | 33c | 57.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…b68ebacked Anderson | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb586…7f97backed Anderson | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Anderson vs. Yagshimuradovthis page
- Al-Selawe vs. BabeneAl-Selawe won
- Cartwright vs. LoughranCartwright won
- Colgan vs. WilsonColgan won
- El Dafrawy vs. ZendeliZendeli won
- Izumi vs. CenciIzumi won
- Magomedov vs. PettisPettis won
- Nurmagomedov vs. HughesNurmagomedov won
- Rahmani vs. TrabelsiRahmani won
- Sardinha vs. AkhtamovAkhtamov won
- Zaynukov vs. MitchellZaynukov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.