UFC · resolved market
Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9daad824a204780e6713d2fc1c6a1c8a6922e7eec7b2c09d1c996f6aaaaec043
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nurmagomedovof Nurmagomedov, Hughes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8628…6f0bbacked Nurmagomedov | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hughes | 25c | 6,943$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.65 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…7188backed Hughes | 25c | 2,518$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Hughes | 27c | 1,847$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.29 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…e006backed Nurmagomedov | 72c | 1,382$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.33 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…5066backed Nurmagomedov | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…d2a9backed Hughes | 26c | 1,240$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed Nurmagomedov | 77c | 1,121$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Hughes | 33c | 983.29$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Hughes | 22c | 844.2$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.31 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Hughes | 28c | 765.12$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.83 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Hughes | 27c | 622.28$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.06 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Hughes | 27c | 573.15$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.38 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Hughes | 30c | 530.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.49 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Hughes | 29c | 499.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Nurmagomedov | 73c | 493.29$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Hughes | 28c | 480$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…f06cbacked Nurmagomedov | 78c | 387.12$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…2e41backed Hughes | 27c | 355.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Hughes | 23c | 312.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Hughes | 25c | 310$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Hughes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Hughes | 27c | 252.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Hughes | 27c | 229.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…6b43backed Nurmagomedov | 74c | 208.57$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…4ad6backed Nurmagomedov | 70c | 206.21$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Nurmagomedov | 80c | 186.24$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…92c9backed Nurmagomedov | 69c | 181.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Nurmagomedov | 70c | 170$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Hughes | 31c | 168.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked Nurmagomedov | 70c | 160.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…02e2backed Nurmagomedov | 73c | 152.07$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…462ebacked Nurmagomedov | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Hughes | 29c | 106.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…e3ebbacked Nurmagomedov | 70c | 105.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Nurmagomedov | 72c | 105.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Hughes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Nurmagomedov | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Hughes | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Hughes | 30c | 92.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…cd5ebacked Nurmagomedov | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…32a7backed Nurmagomedov | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Nurmagomedov | 73c | 68.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Nurmagomedov | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…be8bbacked Hughes | 29c | 68.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…63c8backed Nurmagomedov | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…09e1backed Nurmagomedov | 78c | 57.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6313…9d7abacked Nurmagomedov | 74c | 55.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…2704backed Nurmagomedov | 70c | 51.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…51a1backed Hughes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…209dbacked Nurmagomedov | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Hughes | 29c | 42.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…01f7backed Nurmagomedov | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…b68ebacked Nurmagomedov | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe936…8944backed Nurmagomedov | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb586…7f97backed Nurmagomedov | 73c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…7576backed Nurmagomedov | 74c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nurmagomedov vs. Hughesthis page
- Al-Selawe vs. BabeneAl-Selawe won
- Anderson vs. YagshimuradovAnderson won
- Cartwright vs. LoughranCartwright won
- Colgan vs. WilsonColgan won
- El Dafrawy vs. ZendeliZendeli won
- Izumi vs. CenciIzumi won
- Magomedov vs. PettisPettis won
- Rahmani vs. TrabelsiRahmani won
- Sardinha vs. AkhtamovAkhtamov won
- Zaynukov vs. MitchellZaynukov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.