Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285b16b63373bcbabb1c6ffa3f44a5ed97e0d26820f6178d361d4f1471c32742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 222.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 25c | 201.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 27c | 194.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 176.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 16c | 167$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 13c | 158$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 74c | 140.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 9c | 137.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 128.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 120.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 94.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 76.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 29c | 76.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 73.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 66.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 76c | 65.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 65.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 25c | 59.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 58.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 34c | 46.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 46.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 44.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 41.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 39.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 35.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 78c | 30.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 27.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 24.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 68c | 23.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.