College Football · resolved market
Spread: UConn (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x285e61f895dd1be974cd49acf83f3b5e839c5906865afeceef962861cff8e55f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida Atlanticof UConn, Florida Atlantic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed UConn | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Florida Atlantic | 55c | 3,333$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.69 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Florida Atlantic | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.1 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed UConn | 45c | 1,100$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed UConn | 45c | 886.79$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Florida Atlantic | 54c | 725$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Florida Atlantic | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed UConn | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Florida Atlantic | 57c | 375.63$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.52 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed UConn | 46c | 235$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Florida Atlantic | 55c | 185$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…e5ffbacked UConn | 43c | 123$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed UConn | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Florida Atlantic | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Florida Atlantic | 54c | 79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked UConn | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Florida Atlantic | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed UConn | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed UConn | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked UConn | 46c | 22.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UConn (-7.5)this page
- Spread: UConn (-6.5)Florida Atlantic won
- UConn vs. Florida AtlanticUConn won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.