NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28893373ed1de3af4cb2d67123c46c05c0f9021809075ff7b93b50caabf10cfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 57c | 45,544$26,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,388.66 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 10,997$4,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,691.13 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 42c | 10,270$4,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,313.4 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 43c | 9,510$4,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,042.11 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 42c | 6,300$2,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 44c | 3,350$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Under | 57c | 3,182$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.38 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 42c | 1,647$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.88 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 43c | 1,618$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.78 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Over | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 58c | 298$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.16 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 41c | 237.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Under | 59c | 237.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 43c | 101.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. LightningLightning won
- Stars vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.