TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Stars vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Stars, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$480,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$531,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 599 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Lightning60c49,173$29,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,803.083865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Stars42c43,002$17,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,922.4888151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Lightning57c37,926$21,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,308.121652.3%113 W · 103 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Stars43c37,524$16,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,135.295644.6%25 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Lightning58c24,200$14,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,16413553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x181b…be49backed Lightning50c18,600$9,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,300475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bd…2a37backed Stars50c18,600$9,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,3002147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+73.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Stars40c15,520$6,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,208.292848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x517c…87aebacked Stars42c15,200$6,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,38410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1737…0fbabacked Lightning58c15,200$8,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Lightning58c14,809$8,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,219.654264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning61c13,120$8,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,080.771,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Stars41c10,590$4,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,363.2337847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b7…3af3backed Stars0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning57c8,995$5,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,867.8370547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Stars26c8,335$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.056163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Stars42c8,259$3,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,447.130551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Stars40c7,511$2,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,988.428746%40 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Stars42c6,530$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.9341246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Stars4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Lightning58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.9413946.8%65 W · 74 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Stars43c4,527$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,946.615646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Stars44c4,465$1,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.5158841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Stars39c3,977$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.911,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Stars42c3,969$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.9862249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Lightning57c3,500$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.530447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Stars39c3,498$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.3540550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc2…b145backed Lightning59c3,390$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.831154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed Lightning58c3,240$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.83946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Stars43c3,029$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3006139.3%24 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Lightning58c3,022$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.2432251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Lightning57c3,015$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.8287447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056e…4991backed Stars42c2,813$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Stars40c2,751$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.862,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Stars42c2,733$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.9923047.4%109 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Stars44c2,495$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.8448050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Stars41c2,382$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.6969550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Stars42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00025446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Stars42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning47c2,250$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.921,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Stars1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Lightning58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84011946.2%55 W · 64 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86097651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d5…e1e2backed Lightning58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Stars42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8406657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked Lightning58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.992962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Stars42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.9968449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ed6…49a1backed Lightning56c2,000$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.752441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Stars40c1,960$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.1527143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x954b…eb22backed Lightning58c1,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.145850%29 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb028…b0dcbacked Lightning59c1,569$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.462642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d4d…794cbacked Stars42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6302245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Stars41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6151,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Stars42c1,464$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.543,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Stars42c1,400$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58834845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x773e…c925backed Stars43c1,395$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc66b…98e8backed Lightning58c1,395$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.91478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick54cpaid+47.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e6f…ffaabacked Lightning54c1,392$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.3111947.9%57 W · 62 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Stars40c1,356$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.41,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Stars40c1,314$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.885240.4%21 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c6d…a858backed Stars42c1,310$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Stars41c1,226$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.656543.1%28 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cc7…cdf9backed Lightning58c1,164$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa556…2c2bbacked Stars43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6d…88f2backed Stars41c1,050$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Lightning58c1,002$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.115856.9%33 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730d…6cfabacked Lightning58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x111c…2ac5backed Stars43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4302147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…2c46backed Stars42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Lightning57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43025447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ff…e7f5backed Lightning58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick54cpaid-37.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed Stars44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Lightning58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4205446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x618d…aadcbacked Stars42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4202454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeefb…c552backed Stars43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4302259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+39.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83d2…9c77backed Stars43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfa…8d6cbacked Lightning58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22e6…26efbacked Lightning58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4205453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Stars42c999.99$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4203441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcea…e87dbacked Stars42c999.98$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.991450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x809d…4f4fbacked Lightning58c999.97$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.99683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+60.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ba8…ab96backed Stars41c999.87$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.954537.8%17 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Stars45c977$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.9730848.4%149 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Stars22c909.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029319.8%58 W · 235 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Lightning57c900$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3879250%46 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Stars40c875$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35072847.9%349 W · 379 L-1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca7b…c0a4backed Lightning58c862.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.07955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4131…4030backed Stars43c862$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.661250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Stars43c855.81$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36826946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e9…5e83backed Lightning59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.463748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c6…90d0backed Lightning53c755.56$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.563748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae0…cf6abacked Stars42c750$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Stars41c746.54$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.552,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb908…df62backed Stars43c743.34$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning49c739.6$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.51,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba2…223fbacked Stars43c734.05$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a11…aab3backed Stars42c727.98$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.751963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf57…6dffbacked Lightning59c727.95$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.465058%29 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ad…f25cbacked Stars44c727.27$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab61…e585backed Lightning58c727.26$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.