NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1418517c0e34e0e81f970b7a56d032f6c849c3474bf081b401fb72429b016cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Stars, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $480,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $531,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 599 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Lightning | 60c | 49,173$29,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,803.08 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Stars | 42c | 43,002$17,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,922.48 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Lightning | 57c | 37,926$21,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,308.1 | 216 | 52.3%113 W · 103 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Stars | 43c | 37,524$16,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,135.29 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Lightning | 58c | 24,200$14,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,164 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181b…be49backed Lightning | 50c | 18,600$9,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…2a37backed Stars | 50c | 18,600$9,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,300 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Stars | 40c | 15,520$6,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,208.2 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517c…87aebacked Stars | 42c | 15,200$6,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,384 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1737…0fbabacked Lightning | 58c | 15,200$8,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,384 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Lightning | 58c | 14,809$8,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,219.65 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 61c | 13,120$8,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,080.77 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Stars | 41c | 10,590$4,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,363.23 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b7…3af3backed Stars | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning | 57c | 8,995$5,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,867.83 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Stars | 26c | 8,335$2,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.05 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Stars | 42c | 8,259$3,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,447.1 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Stars | 40c | 7,511$2,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,988.42 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Stars | 42c | 6,530$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,753.93 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Stars | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Lightning | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.94 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…a0a4backed Stars | 43c | 4,527$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.61 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Stars | 44c | 4,465$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.51 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Stars | 39c | 3,977$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.91 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Stars | 42c | 3,969$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.98 | 622 | 49.4%307 W · 315 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Lightning | 57c | 3,500$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.5 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Stars | 39c | 3,498$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.35 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…b145backed Lightning | 59c | 3,390$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed Lightning | 58c | 3,240$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Stars | 43c | 3,029$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Lightning | 58c | 3,022$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.24 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lightning | 57c | 3,015$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.82 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…4991backed Stars | 42c | 2,813$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Stars | 40c | 2,751$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.86 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Stars | 42c | 2,733$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.99 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Stars | 44c | 2,495$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.84 | 480 | 50.6%243 W · 237 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Stars | 41c | 2,382$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.69 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Stars | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 254 | 46.5%118 W · 136 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Stars | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning | 47c | 2,250$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.92 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Stars | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Lightning | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Lightning | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…e1e2backed Lightning | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d6…86fdbacked Stars | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3909…335fbacked Lightning | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.99 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Stars | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…49a1backed Lightning | 56c | 2,000$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Stars | 40c | 1,960$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.15 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Lightning | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Lightning | 59c | 1,569$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.46 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…794cbacked Stars | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Stars | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Stars | 42c | 1,464$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.54 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Stars | 42c | 1,400$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773e…c925backed Stars | 43c | 1,395$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…98e8backed Lightning | 58c | 1,395$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.9 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…ffaabacked Lightning | 54c | 1,392$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.31 | 119 | 47.9%57 W · 62 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Stars | 40c | 1,356$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.4 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Stars | 40c | 1,314$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.88 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…a858backed Stars | 42c | 1,310$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Stars | 41c | 1,226$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.65 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc7…cdf9backed Lightning | 58c | 1,164$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…2c2bbacked Stars | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6d…88f2backed Stars | 41c | 1,050$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5200backed Lightning | 58c | 1,002$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.11 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730d…6cfabacked Lightning | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x111c…2ac5backed Stars | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…2c46backed Stars | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Lightning | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 254 | 47.2%120 W · 134 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…e7f5backed Lightning | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…9726backed Stars | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Lightning | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x618d…aadcbacked Stars | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…c552backed Stars | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…9c77backed Stars | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…8d6cbacked Lightning | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…26efbacked Lightning | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…378fbacked Stars | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…e87dbacked Stars | 42c | 999.98$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809d…4f4fbacked Lightning | 58c | 999.97$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…ab96backed Stars | 41c | 999.87$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.95 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Stars | 45c | 977$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.97 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Stars | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 293 | 19.8%58 W · 235 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Lightning | 57c | 900$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Stars | 40c | 875$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7b…c0a4backed Lightning | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…4030backed Stars | 43c | 862$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Stars | 43c | 855.81$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…5e83backed Lightning | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…90d0backed Lightning | 53c | 755.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.56 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…cf6abacked Stars | 42c | 750$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Stars | 41c | 746.54$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.55 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb908…df62backed Stars | 43c | 743.34$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 49c | 739.6$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.5 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba2…223fbacked Stars | 43c | 734.05$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a11…aab3backed Stars | 42c | 727.98$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.75 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…6dffbacked Lightning | 59c | 727.95$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.46 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…f25cbacked Stars | 44c | 727.27$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab61…e585backed Lightning | 58c | 727.26$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Lightningthis page
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
- Stars vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.