Us Politics · resolved market
Will FBI send Pam Bondi the full Epstein files by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x288d8da5ddc4ec44a5a5f4844619e3212cc44c4bda3e7d14026e7b78d7617c1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,798$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 15c | 1,180$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.09 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 845.72$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.27 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 5c | 636.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 2c | 536.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 439.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 13c | 434.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 243.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 13c | 230$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…37d2backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 15c | 192.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 16c | 169.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 16c | 144.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…b24dbacked No | 76c | 116.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…98febacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 41c | 27.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 73c | 22.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.