Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x289d3bb3a533cd094e392eccd5dc28c484768c3b802556cc78cd7dd5b2d1af24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 744.87$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.63 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 465.44$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.73 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 434.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.89 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 8c | 205.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 197.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 128.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 126.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 121.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.96 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 117.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 52c | 114.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 78c | 110.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 109.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 104.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 58c | 99.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 84.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 79.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 57.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 43c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 52.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 80c | 52.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 50.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 23c | 49.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 48.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 47.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 44.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 42.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 38.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 48c | 33.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 48c | 33.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 51c | 29.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 53c | 26.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 20.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 18.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 69c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.