MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28a101ed1e8694e554a1dffd9a2608b5920d2a8fbb47ed2c3a144b2b5ffd20d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 3,521$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 1,975$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.75 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 14c | 1,700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 1,080$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.85 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 9c | 905.25$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 450.63$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.54 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Milwaukee Brewers | 7c | 390.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 160.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 105$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 99.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 15c | 99.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…eee9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 68.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 51.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.