MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28d0ade8a13b3429a4feabc058e18d7926da8d1604d22e446e718ecbd6249801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 51c | 25,919$13,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,700.38 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 19,233$9,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,423.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 8,623$4,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,222.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9747…961ebacked Over | 50c | 6,060$3,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,030 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 50c | 5,318$2,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,659.03 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…b730backed Under | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 1,956$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.38 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,600$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 1,051$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.88 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 880$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 873.04$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 725.44$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 51c | 502$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.98 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 462.08$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.42 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 441.08$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.13 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 51c | 377.37$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.91 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…821abacked Under | 52c | 253.73$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.87 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 51c | 231.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.64 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 49c | 161$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 51c | 145.92$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 143.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 28c | 107.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…71cebacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 51c | 60.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 29c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Over | 52c | 29.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 51c | 28.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…69f5backed Under | 51c | 24.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf8…4d13backed Over | 49c | 23.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 49c | 22.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.