Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28d973e2c3f5aa4e92b9ed21b16134a696dac87288025fbbc2ca7c47da997d94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf94e…b2c7backed Yes | 1c | 3,317$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 5c | 999.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 18c | 632.13$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 625.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 399.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 15c | 386.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 314.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 267.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 267.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 15c | 241.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 231.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 11c | 165.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 160.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 156.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197d…7006backed Yes | 11c | 136.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 15c | 136.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b7…eeb5backed Yes | 13c | 109.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 15c | 102.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 92.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 16c | 90.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked Yes | 20c | 88.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 87.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 16c | 62.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 19c | 60.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 80c | 29.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.