Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeb4801cc0692a70ddb66a437a73f59769b4e5686caba412e1e907a9d33ffce3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 74c | 1,811$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.07 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 52c | 1,029$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.97 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 15c | 1,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 50c | 485$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 28c | 383.61$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 348.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 76c | 330$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 309.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 279.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 263.29$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 246.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 36c | 239.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 235.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 45c | 224$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 216.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 53c | 200.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 185$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 75c | 152.58$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 134.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 133.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 33c | 131.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 17c | 128.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 118.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 50c | 111.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 109$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 107.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 72c | 106.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 27c | 105.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 57c | 104.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 24c | 102.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 12c | 101.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 77c | 90.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 83.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 81.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 27c | 72.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 49c | 70.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…dd98backed Yes | 72c | 69.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 67.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 33c | 60.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 59.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 58.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 58.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 70c | 54.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 78c | 51.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 74c | 49.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 49.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 67c | 46.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 48c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 77c | 40.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fa…b925backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 71c | 36.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…9fe1backed No | 44c | 35.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 56c | 35.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 30c | 33.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 49c | 27.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 76c | 27.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 53c | 24.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 75c | 23.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…d0e4backed Yes | 74c | 23.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 78c | 21.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 55c | 21.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6e…b0e9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 72c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…c64fbacked Yes | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.