Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28d9c1cf49a5805cdc04bb4ceca4a81415555a89ae8d171b1fc46fc7c25b445f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Minaur, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Minaur | 45c | 760.88$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.89 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Minaur | 41c | 666.23$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.15 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Nakashima | 56c | 651.7$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.85 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Minaur | 44c | 574.04$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nakashima | 55c | 477.42$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Nakashima | 56c | 443.43$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.11 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…6266backed Minaur | 45c | 429.23$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Minaur | 43c | 295.63$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Nakashima | 58c | 171.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Nakashima | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Minaur | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…f428backed Nakashima | 57c | 77.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Minaur | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Nakashima | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Minaur | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Nakashima | 58c | 43.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Minaur | 45c | 42.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Nakashima | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Nakashima | 57c | 35.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…6520backed Nakashima | 58c | 33.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Nakashima | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Minaur | 41c | 26.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Nakashima | 57c | 19.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)this page
- HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon NakashimaBrandon Nakashima won
- Minaur vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs NakashimaNakashima won
- Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs NakashimaNakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.