Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28ea4ca00a2936c1c2f73bb93223a6edc51f6d0029030f1688c59ae4ddb81367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 62c | 462.96$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.85 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 67c | 262.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 31c | 107.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 55c | 100.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 42c | 100.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 24c | 99.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 87.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 47c | 85.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 50c | 83.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 35c | 71.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 67.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 45c | 65.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 25c | 64.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…f027backed Yes | 66c | 61.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 50.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 37c | 49.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 42.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 41.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…6afbbacked Yes | 32c | 38.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 32c | 36.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed Yes | 40c | 36.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 70c | 35.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 57c | 32.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 67c | 30.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 48c | 28.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 54c | 28.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 53c | 27.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 51c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 65c | 23.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 54c | 22.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9668…5833backed No | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 52c | 19.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 78c | 12.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.